Thus, the anomalous sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of the central tropical Pacific (e.g., over Nino 3.4) leads six months before the UWTA of the study region and anomalous SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) peak up. Our understanding of what controls rainfall variability and change is worryingly poor. Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa Author links open overlay panel Ayansina Ayanlade a b Maren Radeny b John F. Morton c Tabitha Muchaba b In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann-Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. Assessment of climate impact on vegetation dynamics over East Africa from 1982 to 2015. The performance of different schemes on the precipitation systems during the wet and dry seasons over Tanzania is evaluated such that the sensitivity tests was performed for the WRF model at different horizontal resolutions, and for different physical parameterization schemes (convective and cloud microphysics). The bimodal rainfall regime in much of East Africa brings rainy seasons from March to May and October to December with greater interannual variability from October to December. The climatic commonality throughout the region is the frequent occurrence of drought severe enough to incapacitate the population. Highlights Evidence of decadal variability in inter-annual patterns of East Africa rainfall. This study examines the interannual variability of rainfall in western equatorial Africa and its links to sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs). A modified Waldron test based on sliding skewness for determining asymmetric cycle in a turbidite se... Periodogram analysis of sunspot numbers and the relation with solar activities. With regard to learning in cycles, we quantify and compare the performance of almost cyclic and purely cyclic learning. The analysis includes fitting an auto regression moving average model (ARMA) model for the data. interval (number of bed thickness taken for calculation) chosen for the sliding skewness calculation. cyclicity where non-parametric Waldron Test fails. However, negative SD values (around − 5 mm/year) were obtained in the Horn of Africa. Variability in sub-trends of the West African precipitation is linked to changes in SST of the Atlantic Ocean. ( 11 year cycle). Our understanding of what controls rainfall variability and change is worryingly poor. 6, Fig. MAM and OND seasonal rainfall are dominated by 10 year cycles of wet/dry phases. Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. thickening-up) in turbidite successions, often fails to offer convincing results either when bed thickness distribution is relation with variations of solar constant and solar radiation reaching the Earth's atmosphere in the last solar cycle. The H0 was also rejected (p < 0.05) for the increase in annual and September–November precipitation of some areas along the Equatorial region (such as in Gabon and around Lake Victoria). Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. Reed MS, Podesta G, Fazey I, Geeson N, Hessel R, Hubacek K, Letson D, Nainggolan D, Prell C, Rickenbach MG, Ritsema C, Schwilch G, Stringer LC, Thomas AD. These periods are related to the solar magnetic activity and to the modulation of solar features due to solar rotation. Southern Africa is characterised by a high degree of rainfall variability aff ecting agriculture among other sectors. Large-scale forcing was apparent for three of the regions, with wet (dry) conditions being associated with positive Southern Africa is characterised by a high degree of rainfall variability aff ecting agriculture among other sectors. Statistical significance for the proposed methodology was determined on the studied sections both through the Z-value and Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. IPCC among many other past studies have linked global temperature increase worldwide to climate change induced global warming. ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication. The Sahelian climate is characterized by a long dry season and a rainy season which starts in June and ends in September–October. This study analyzed changes in long-term (1901–2015) annual and seasonal precipitation of high spatial (0.5° × 0.5° grid) resolution covering the entire African continent. eCollection 2019 Jun. microphysics and the multiscale Kain–Fritsch scheme showed greater success during the both seasons; therefore, these combinations were recommended for Tanzania to resolve weather systems during the wet and dry season simulations, respectively. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa. Rainfall variability & change. Annual rainfall variability in this rainfall variability in southern Africa: Livelihood impacts & Network response David Love, WaterNet a future SADC Subsidiary institution. Temperature data were however analysed for all the four seasons The data were subjected to various trend analysis methods that included time series plots of the graph of the specific rainfall and temperature observations. Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods. Rainfall is … NLM Some attribute this decline to anthropogenic forcing, whereas others maintain that it is a feature of internal climate variability. Kalisa W, Igbawua T, Henchiri M, Ali S, Zhang S, Bai Y, Zhang J. Sci Rep. 2019 Nov 14;9(1):16865. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-53150-0. We also found a clearly countercyclical relationship between production and prices and the style index cycles. The rotated PCA loading patterns suggest several “preferred” continental-scale rainfall anomaly patterns. However, closeexamination reveals that rainfall variability in Southern Africa has experiencedsignificant modifications, especially in the recent decades. Application of the sliding skewness methodology reveals thinning-upward The bimodal rainfall regime in much of East Africa brings rainy seasons from March to May and October to December with greater interannual variability from October to December. Current observations in the three countries of central Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) are not consistent with these predictions.  |  seasonality, variability, trend and fluctuation (Olaniran, 1983, Ologunorisa, 2001). Eastern Africa is characterized by high spatio-temporal rainfall variability as it spans over 30 degrees of latitude (across the equator). Time series of annual rainfall for 69 stations in Africa were analyzed for trends and periodicities. All rights reserved. The sample include January to September pattern of the amount of rainfall, for the years 2006 to 2016. Regardless of the trend significance, in most parts of Africa, annual precipitation exhibited negative (positive) trends over the period 1965–1990 (1991–2015). correlation coecients in the time domain. USA.gov. Variability in future river discharge ranges from 5–267%, increases with emission intensity, and is the highest in rivers in the southern and south eastern parts of the basin. (2001), Conway (2002), These range from benefits due to improved seasonal rainfall forecasting to reduce the damage of extremes, to improved understanding of existing climate-society interactions to provide insights into the region's vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to future climate change. Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the past 1,100 years.  |  The impacts vary from droughts, floods, storms, coastal inundation, ecosystem degradation, heat waves, wild fires, epidemics, and even conflicts over land. The flow trajectories reveal no systematic trends but suggest marked inter-annual variation, primarily in the timing and magnitude of discharge peaks and lows. This site needs JavaScript to work properly. 2001; Conway 2002; Ogutunde et al. managing risks to food production from multiple stressors, including rainfall variability, have increased substantially in Africa since the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Precipitation prediction is important to help mitigate the effects of drought and floods on various social and economic activities. Large-scale forcing was apparent for three of the regions, with wet (dry) conditions being associated with positive (negative) SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. Interannual variations in African rainfall are examined using rotated principal component analysis (PCA) applied to anomalies from the annual mean as well as seasonal anomalies. However, ENSO as measured by the Niño 3 index, only accounts for 20 percent of the December to January rainfall variability, while Indian Ocean SST anomalies, particularly in the western and South Climate is changing at an alarming rate threatening the critical pillars for environmental, social and economic development. Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Climate variability and malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa. rainfall variability, with extreme events such as . Increasing flood risk is now being recognized as the most important sectoral threat from climate change in most parts of the region which has prompted public debate on the apparent increased frequency of extreme, and in particular, on perceived increase in rainfall intensities (Oriola, 1994). All cities (except Faya and Lere) received higher rainfall during 1950-1965 (wet period), entering a dry regime between 1966-1990 (dry period) and subsequently recovering rainfall totals, toward previous levels, between 1991-2014 (recovery phase). Serially independent climatic variables, Mann-Kendall test ( MK test ) was applied to modulation. Of western equatorial Africa are examined using departure series for 84 regions of Sahel. Efficacy of interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall rainfall variability in africa used extended from 1981-2015 while... 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